art with code

2017-09-07

Negotiating a Brexit

The Brits are negotiating with the haggling approach, the EU with the "let's do modifications to a reasonable compromise" approach. That's why the Brits seem to be out of their minds like the wino at the liquor store trying to haggle down the price of a 20 quid bottle of whiskey by starting with a 5 pound offer. And to the Brits, the EU seems to be very inflexible like the shopkeeper who says that prices are fixed (but there's a bit of leeway depending on what else you buy and how you behave).

This is pretty hard to fix after the fact. If the Brits go with "okay, let's do it your way", it'll look like they're suddenly giving a lot of ground. If the EU starts doing a haggling approach with an unreasonable first offer, it'll look like they've gone bonkers and are negotiating in the wrong direction.

For the Brits, the best approach is to keep haggling to extract concessions. They're already unreasonable so there's very little to lose by slowly moving towards the reasonable compromise. You can even do yanks in the other direction to see if you can nudge loose any extras.

For the EU, the best approach is to stop negotiating until the Brits are at the reasonable compromise. Then you can start figuring out the modifications and get the deal done. There's no point in negotiating while the Brits are approaching the middle ground, so it's best to just end negotiation rounds once you find out that they're not there yet.

The problem with these approaches is that while they're good optics at home, they antagonize the British audience towards the EU and the EU audience towards the Brits. The Brits seem like welfare queens, wanting to have everything without doing anything, whereas the EU looks like a bunch of rigid bureaucrats, unable to do a deal.

To counter this, the two sides appeal to the public on the other side. The EU ends up courting the British public by promises that they'll retain their citizenship and that the negotiations are mostly about boring bureaucratic stuff with the out-of-touch British government. The Brits end up telling that other Europeans should bugger off from the blighted isles before the pox descends upon them.. um, wait what? There's no British PR outreach, just Home Office hardliners ranting about their clients. Perhaps this should change?

To bridge the gap between the negotiation strategies, the EU could gradually shift more towards a haggling approach by moving the goalposts. Apply time pressure, give concessions on minor things, but start going for a worse deal for the Brits on things that matter. Then you can start doing haggling, give concessions and move towards a reasonable compromise once again. The other way to get to the unreasonable offer necessary to start haggling is to have some big shift - say you change the negotiator or that some unnamed governments have insisted to change the position in a big way because October is approaching or that the skies are cloudy therefore we need to insist on triple payments, all the stolen EU tax money in the tax havens, and the reunification of Gibraltar and Ireland.

The Brits could bridge the gap by misstating the EU position as something unreasonable that they've never said, then haggle against this strawman position until the EU position as stated by the Brits agrees with the actual EU position, and the Brit position is also at the reasonable compromise. The other way would be a big shift of their own, something like "Oh! Right! We misread your proposal. Yes, this seems much more agreeable, let's work from here then."

Thing with haggling: both sides get big wins in the process when going from unreasonable to reasonable. That's the psychology. If you don't get big wins, you'll get frustrated. The "modifying a reasonable compromise" process on the other hand nets you a few small wins, a few small losses. It's not as exciting and can be done a lot faster.

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Built art installations, web sites, graphics libraries, web browsers, mobile apps, desktop apps, media player themes, many nutty prototypes, much bad code, much bad art.

Have freelanced for Verizon, Google, Mozilla, Warner Bros, Sony Pictures, Yahoo!, Microsoft, Valve Software, TDK Electronics.

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